The Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia

Ianchovichina, Elena ; Walmsley, Terrie

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: COMPETITION;    FOREIGN INVESTMENT;    GLOBAL MARKETS;    NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZING ECONOMIES;    NIE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3109
RP-ID  :  WPS3109

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

China's World Trade Organization(WTO) accession will have major implications for China andpresent both opportunities and challenges for East Asia.Ianchovichina and Walmsley assess the possible channelsthrough which China's accession to the WTO could affectEast Asia and quantify these effects using a dynamiccomputable general equilibrium model. China will be thebiggest beneficiary of accession, followed by the industrialand newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia. Buttheir benefits are small relative to the size of theireconomies and to the vigorous growth projected to occur inthe region over the next 10 years. By contrast, developingcountries in East Asia are expected to incur small declinesin real GDP and welfare as a result of China'saccession, mainly because with the elimination of quotas onChinese textile and apparel exports to industrial countriesChina will become a formidable competitor in areas in whichthese countries have comparative advantage. With WTOaccession China will increase its demand for petrochemicals,electronics, machinery, and equipment from Japan and theNIEs, and farm, timber, energy products, and othermanufactures from the developing countries in East Asia. Newforeign investment is likely to flow into these expandingsectors. The overall impact on foreign investment is likelyto be positive in the NIEs, but negative for the lessdeveloped East Asian countries as a result of thecontraction of these economies' textile and apparelsector. As China becomes a more efficient supplier ofservices or a more efficient producer of high-endmanufactures, its comparative advantage will shift intohigher-end products. This is good news for the poordeveloping economies in East Asia, but it implies that theimpact of China's WTO accession on the NIEs may changeto include heightened competition in global markets.