Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000

Ranaweera, Thilak

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGRICULTURE;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;    BUDGET DEFICIT;    BUDGET DEFICITS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3144
RP-ID  :  WPS3144

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The author develops, and applies amacroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence ofdomestic disequilibria, and external shocks on inflationdynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several"long-run" relationships for the goods, money, andforeign exchange markets of Uzbekistan, which arecharacterized by multiple exchange rates, importrestrictions, and other domestic administrative controls.The empirical estimates, which use error correctionmechanisms for different markets, show that domesticmonetary, and output developments, and changes in theofficial exchange rate, compared with the parallel marketrate, have had a significant influence on the short-runbehavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan.Furthermore, disequilibria in the product, and money marketsare the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics inUzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has beenconstrained by both the quantity, and the quality ofquarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy.