Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela: A Structural Time Series Approach

Cuevas, Mario A.

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;    OIL PRICES;    ECONOMIC POLICY;    PRICE INCREASES BONDS;    BUSINESS CYCLES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2826
RP-ID  :  WPS2826

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Real GDP and oil prices are decomposedinto common stochastic trend and cycle processes usingstructural time series models. Potential real GDP isrepresented by the level of the trend component of real GDP.The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented bythe stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevasfinds that there is a strong association at the trend andcycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price ofoil. This association is also robust in the presence of keyeconomic policy variables. From 1970-80, when the underlyingannual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potentialGDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from1981-2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the realprice of oil was -5 percent, the underlying growth rate ofpotential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength ofassociation between the underlying growth of oil prices andreal GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s,suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine forfuture growth in Venezuela.