Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth : Is There a Middle Income Trap?

Bulman, David ; Eden, Maya ; Nguyen, Ha

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURE;    ANNUAL CHANGE;    ANNUAL GROWTH;    ANNUAL INFLATION;    AVERAGE ANNUAL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7104
RP-ID  :  WPS7104

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Is there a "middle incometrap"? Theory suggests that the determinants of growthat low and high income levels may be different. If countriesstruggle to transition from growth strategies that areeffective at low income levels to growth strategies that areeffective at high income levels, they may stagnate at somemiddle income level; this phenomenon can be thought of as a"middle income trap." This paper does not findevidence for (unusual) stagnation at any particular middleincome level. However, it does find evidence that thedeterminants of growth at low and high income levels differ.These findings suggest a mixed conclusion: middle-incomecountries may need to change growth strategies to transitionsmoothly to high-income growth strategies, but this can bedone smoothly and does not imply the existence of a middleincome trap.