50 Years of Urbanization in Africa : Examining the Role of Climate Change

Henderson, J. Vernon ; Storeygard, Adam ; Deichmann, Uwe

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE CLIMATE;    AIR;    AIR TEMPERATURE;    ALLOCATION;    AMOUNT OF RAINFALL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6925
RP-ID  :  WPS6925

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper documents a significantimpact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-SaharanAfrica, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farmincomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migrationto nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration.The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban incomelinks. In countries with a larger industrial base, reducedmoisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises totalincomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities areentirely dependent on servicing agriculture so theirfortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisturetends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the papershows that climate induces employment changes within therural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out offarm activities, especially for women, into non-farmactivities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall,these findings imply a strong link between climate andurbanization in Africa.