Household Coping and Response to Government Stimulus in an Economic Crisis : Evidence from Thailand

Khandker, Shahidur R. ; Koolwal, Gayatri B. ; Haughton, Jonathan ; Jitsuchon, Somchai

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURE;    ALLOCATION;    ALLOWANCES;    ALTERNATIVE ENERGY;    BALANCE SHEET;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6016
RP-ID  :  WPS6016

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The crash of global financial markets in2008 caused a ripple effect on economic demand and growthworldwide. Export-oriented economies were hit particularlyhard, and many governments stepped in quickly withbroad-ranging stimulus programs to lessen the effects onhouseholds of rising unemployment and falling income. Tobetter understand the role that stimulus policy might playin softening the effects of these shocks, this paperexamines recent nationally-representative data fromThailand, an export-dependent economy where a large-scalestimulus program was introduced in 2009. Using monthly dataspanning 2006-2010, the paper uses sub-province-levelcommunity panel data to examine the effects of majorcomponents of the stimulus on household consumption, income,borrowing, and debt repaid. To address simultaneity ofchanges in government spending and household outcomes, theanalysis estimates a dynamic panel regression, instrumentingthe stimulus effect with second-order lagged outcomevariables, and estimating the model using the GeneralizedMethod of Moments. The results suggest that householdparticipation in these programs helped smooth consumption.This increase in monthly consumption was not supported fromhousehold receipts from the government stimulus, but morelikely through a reallocation of consumption and savingsthat included greater debt repayment. The paper typicallyfinds stronger effects in urban compared with rural areas.