Savings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints

Agenor, Pierre-Richard ; Aizenman, Joshua

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ARBITRAGE;    ASYMMETRIC SHOCKS;    BANK DEPOSITS;    BORROWING;    BUDGET DEFICITS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2381
RP-ID  :  WPS2381

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors examine the extent to whichpermanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect onprivate savings. Using a simple three-period model, theyshow that if households expect to face binding constraintson borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is ina long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates willrespond asymmetrically to favorable movements in thepermanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast withthe predictions of conventional consumption-smoothingmodels. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-tradedisturbances using an econometric model that controls forvarious standard determinants of private savings. Theresults - based on panel data for non-oil commodityexporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group ofcountries for which movements in the terms of trade havetraditionally represented a key source of macroeconomicshocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent componentof the terms of trade (measured using three alternativefiltering techniques) indeed tend to be associated withhigher rates of private savings.