How Urban Concentration Affects Economic Growth

Henderson, Vernon

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CAPITAL MARKETS;    CD;    CITIES;    CIVIL LIBERTIES;    COMPETITIVENESS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2326
RP-ID  :  WPS2326

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The author explores the issue of urbanover-concentration econometrically, using data from a panelof 80 to 100 countries every 5 years from 1960 to 1995. Hefinds the following: 1) At any level of development there isindeed a best degree or national urban concentration. Itincreases sharply as income rises, up to a per capita incomeof about $ 5,000 (Penn World table purchasing parityincome), before declining modestly. The best degree ofconcentration declines with country scale. Growth lossesfrom significantly non-optimal concentration are large.Those losses tend to rise with level of development, peakingat a very high level (about 1.5 annual percentage points ofeconomic growth). Results are very robust. 2) In a group of72 countries in 1990, roughly 30 have satisfactory urbanconcentration, 24 have excessive concentration, and 5 to 16countries have too little. 3) The list of countries withhighly excessive concentration includes Argentina, Chile,Costa Rica, and Panama (in Latin America); the Republic ofKorea and Thailand (in Asia); Congo (in Africa); and Greece,Ireland, and Portugal (in Europe). Many of these countrieshave explicitly unitary governments or federal structureshave traditionally been severely constrained. 4) The list ofcountries with too little urban concentration includesBelgium (a small, split country) and special cases such asCzechoslovakia and the former Yugoslavia. 5) Urbanconcentration declines with national scale. It initiallyrises with income, the peaks at a per capita income of about$ 3,000, before declining. If the largest city in a countryis a port, increased trade leads to increased urbanconcentration. Otherwise, increased trade leads todeconcentration as markets i the hinterland open up totrade. But trade effects are modest. 5) Similarly, morepolitical decentralization (or increased federalism) onlymodestly reduces urban concentration. However, interregionaltransport infrastructure - especially dense road networks -significantly reduce urban concentration, an effect thatrises with income.