Why Don't Remittances Appear to Affect Growth?

Clemens, Michael A. ; McKenzie, David

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSIONS;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    EFFECTS ON POVERTY;    GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;    MEASUREMENT CHANGES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6856
RP-ID  :  WPS6856

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Although measured remittances by migrantworkers have soared in recent years, macroeconomic studieshave difficulty detecting their effect on economic growth.This paper reviews existing explanations for this puzzle andproposes three new ones. First, it offers evidence that alarge majority of the recent rise in measured remittancesmay be illusory -- arising from changes in measurement, notchanges in real financial flows. Second, it shows that evenif these increases were correctly measured, cross-countryregressions would have too little power to detect theireffects on growth. Third, it points out that the greatestdriver of rising remittances is rising migration, which hasan opportunity cost to economic product at the origin. Netof that cost, there is little reason to expect large growtheffects of remittances in the origin economy. Migration andremittances clearly have first-order effects on poverty atthe origin, on the welfare of migrants and their families,and on global gross domestic product; but detecting theireffects on growth of the origin economy is likely to remain elusive.