How Significant is Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Ahmed, S. Amer ; Cruz, Marcio ; Go, Delfin S. ; Maliszewska, Maryla ; Osorio-Rodarte, Israel

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;    AGRICULTURE;    ANNUAL GROWTH;    AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH;    AVERAGE GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7134
RP-ID  :  WPS7134

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Africa will be undergoing substantialdemographic changes in the coming decades with the risingworking age share of its population. The opportunity ofAfrican countries to convert these changes into demographicdividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend onseveral factors. The outlook will likely be good if Africancountries can continue the gains already made under betterinstitutions and policies, particularly those affecting theproductivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. IfAfrican countries can continue to build on the hard-wondevelopment gains, the demographic dividend could accountfor 11 to 15 percent of gross domestic product volume growthby 2030, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in2030. The gains can become much more substantial with evenbetter educational outcomes that allow African countries tocatch up to other developing countries. If the skill shareof Africa's labor supply doubles because ofimprovements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50percent between 2011 and 30, then the demographic dividendscan expand the regional economy additionally by 22 percentby 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by anadditional 51 million people.