Economic Resilience : Definition and Measurement

Hallegatte, Stephane

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES;    AIR POLLUTION;    ASSET VALUE;    ASSETS;    AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6852
RP-ID  :  WPS6852

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The welfare impact of a disaster doesnot only depend on the physical characteristics of the eventor its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets.Welfare impacts also depend on the ability of the economy tocope, recover, and reconstruct and therefore to minimizeaggregate consumption losses. This ability can be referredto as the macroeconomic resilience to natural disasters.Macroeconomic resilience has two components: instantaneousresilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude ofimmediate production losses for a given amount of assetlosses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability toreconstruct and recover. Welfare impacts also depend onmicro-economic resilience, which depends on the distributionof losses; on households' vulnerability, such as theirpre-disaster income and ability to smooth shocks over timewith savings, borrowing, and insurance, and on the socialprotection system, or the mechanisms for sharing risksacross the population. The (economic) welfare disaster riskin a country can be reduced by reducing the exposure orvulnerability of people and assets (reducing asset losses),increasing macroeconomic resilience (reducing aggregateconsumption losses for a given level of asset losses), orincreasing microeconomic resilience (reducing welfare lossesfor a given level of aggregate consumption losses). Thepaper proposes rules of thumb to estimate macroeconomic andmicroeconomic resilience based on the relevant parameters inthe economy. It also provides a toolbox of policies toincrease macro- or micro-economic resilience and a list ofindicators that can be used to build a resilience indicator.