Crossing the Threshold : An Analysis of IBRD Graduation Policy

Heckelman, Jac C. ; Knack, Stephen ; Rogers, F. Halsey

关键词: ACCESS TO CAPITAL;    ACCESS TO CAPITAL MARKETS;    ACCESS TO FUNDS;    ACCOUNTABILITY;    ACCOUNTING;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5531
RP-ID  :  WPS5531

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

According to World Bank policy,countries remain eligible to borrow from the InternationalBank for Reconstruction and Development until they are ableto sustain long-term development without further recourse toBank financing. Graduation from the Bank is not an automaticconsequence of reaching a particular income level, butrather is supposed to be based on a determination of whetherthe country has reached a level of institutional developmentand capital-market access that enables it to sustain its owndevelopment process without recourse to Bank funding. Thispaper assesses how International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment graduation policy operates in practice,investigating what income and non-income factors appear tohave influenced graduation decisions in recent decades,based on panel data for 1982 through 2008. Explanatoryvariables include the per-capita income of the country, aswell as measures of institutional development and marketaccess that are cited as criteria by the graduation policy,and other plausible explanatory variables that capture thelevels of economic development and vulnerability of thecountry. The authors find that the observed correlates ofBank graduation are generally consistent with the statedpolicy. Countries that are wealthier, more creditworthy,more institutionally developed, and less vulnerable toshocks are more likely to have graduated. Predictedprobabilities generated by the model correspond closely tothe actual graduation and de-graduation experiences of mostcountries (such as Korea and Trinidad and Tobago), andsuggest that Hungary and Latvia may have graduatedprematurely -- a prediction consistent with their subsequentreturn to borrowing from the Bank in the wake of the globalfinancial crisis.