Economy-wide and Distributional Impacts of an Oil Price Shock on the South African Economy

Essama-Nssah, B. ; Go, Delfin S. ; Kearney, Marna ; Korman, Vijdan ; Robinson, Sherman ; Thierfelder, Karen

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO INFORMATION;    ACCOUNTING;    ADVERSE IMPACT;    AGRICULTURAL SECTORS;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4354
RP-ID  :  WPS4354

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

As crude oil prices reach new highs,there is renewed concern about how external shocks willaffect growth and poverty in developing countries. Thispaper describes a macro-micro framework for examining thestructural and distributional consequences of a significantexternal shock-an increase in the world price of oil-on theSouth African economy.The authors merge results fromahighly disaggregative computable general equilibrium modeland a micro-simulation analysis of earnings and occupationalchoice based on socio-demographic characteristics of thehousehold. The model provides changes in employment, wages,and prices that are used in the micro-simulation. Theanalysis finds that a 125 percent increase in the price ofcrude oil and refined petroleum reduces employment and GDPby approximately 2 percent, and reduces householdconsumption by approximately 7 percent. The oil price shocktends to increase the disparity between rich and poor. Theadverse impact of the oil price shock is felt by the poorersegment of the formal labor market in the form of decliningwages and increased unemployment. Unemployment hits mostlylow and medium-skilled workers in the services sector.High-skilled households, on average, gain from the oil priceshock. Their income rises and their spending basket is lessskewed toward food and other goods that are most affected bychanges in oil prices.