Outlook for Remittance Flows 2011-12 : Recovery After the Crisis, But Risks Lie Ahead

Mohapatra, Sanket ; Ratha, Dilip ; Silwa, Ani

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO FINANCE;    ACCESS TO REMITTANCE SERVICES;    ACROSS BORDERS;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    ASSETS;   

RP-ID  :  58627

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Officially recorded remittance flows todeveloping countries are estimated to increase by 6 percentto $325 billion in 2010. This marks a healthy recovery froma 5.5 percent decline registered in 2009. Remittance flowsare expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2011 and 8.1percent in 2012, to reach $374 billion by 2012. This outlookfor remittance flows, however, is subject to the risks of afragile global economic recovery, volatile currency andcommodity price movements, and rising anti-immigrationsentiment in many destination countries. From a medium-termview, three major trends are apparent: (a) a high level ofunemployment in the migrant-receiving countries has promptedrestrictions on new immigration; (b) the application ofmobile phone technology for domestic remittances has failedto spread to cross-border remittances; and (c) developingcountries are becoming more aware of the potential forleveraging remittances and diaspora wealth for raisingdevelopment finance.