The Surprising Effects of the Great Recession : Losers and Winners in Thailand in 2008-2009

Khandker, Shahidur R. ; Haughton, Jonathan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS;    AGRICULTURE;    ASSETS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6255
RP-ID  :  WPS6255

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In 2009, buffeted by the greatrecession, Thai gross domestic product fell by 2.3 percent.Using monthly data from the socio-economic surveys of2007-2010, this paper finds, after controlling for householdvariables, that real consumption per capita rose in 2009relative to 2008 for most groups, including the poor, urbanand rural households, men, women, and children. The loserswere residents of Bangkok, especially those aged 20-29, andthose working in sales and services. During the recessionyear of 2009, school enrollment rates did not fall, anddurable goods purchases actually rose; households probablyreduced their savings, and also benefitted from the lowerfood prices that prevailed in 2009. A simulation exercisebased on the slowdown in growth of gross domestic productwould have missed these effects, as would models basedsolely on readily-available data series. This points to theimportance of country-specific policy analysis, rooted intimely local evidence, including household survey data.