Newly available data show thatofficially recorded remittance flows to developing countriesreached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previousestimate of $328 billion. Based on monthly and quarterlydata released by some central banks and in line with theWorld Bank's global economic outlook we estimate thatremittance flows to developing countries will fall to $317billion in 2009. This 6.1 percent decline is smaller thanour earlier expectation of a 7.3 percent fall. While newmigration flows have fallen, existing migrants are notreturning even though the job market has been weak in manydestination countries. We maintain our expectation of arecovery in migration and remittance flows in 2010 and 2011,but the recovery is likely to be shallow. In all theregions, remittance flows are likely to face three downsiderisks: a jobless economic recovery, tighter immigrationcontrols, and unpredictable exchange rate movements. Despitethese risks, remittances are expected to remain moreresilient than private capital flows and will become evenmore important as a source of external financing in manydeveloping countries. Policy responses should involveefforts to facilitate migration and remittances, to makethese flows cheaper, safer and more productive for both thesending and the receiving countries.
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