Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

Fukase, Emiko ; Martin, Will

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY;    AGRICULTURAL INPUTS;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6926
RP-ID  :  WPS6926

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper uses resource-based cerealequivalent measures to explore the evolution of China'sdemand and supply for food. Although demand for foodcalories is probably close to its peak level in China, theongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced byincome growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure onagricultural resources. Estimating the relationship betweenincome growth and food demand with data from a wide range ofcountries, China's demand growth appears to have beenbroadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side,output of food depends strongly on the productivity growthassociated with income growth and on the country'sagricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be anout-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-productiondynamics suggest that China's current income levelfalls in the range where consumption growth outstripsproduction growth, but that the gap is likely to begin todecline as China's population growth and dietarytransition slow down. Continued agricultural productivitygrowth through further investment in research anddevelopment, and expansion in farm size and increasedmechanization, as well as sustainable management ofagricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it isprimarily China that will feed China in the 21st century.