Twinning the Goals : How Can Promoting Shared Prosperity Help to Reduce Global Poverty?

Lakner, Christoph ; Negre, Mario ; Prydz, Espen Beer

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE TERMS;    AVERAGE GROWTH;    AVERAGE INCOME;    CHANGES IN POVERTY;    CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE;   

RP-ID  :  WPS7106

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In 2013, the World Bank adopted twogoals: First, reduce global extreme poverty to 3 percent by2030. Second, promote shared prosperity defined as theincome growth of the bottom 40 percent of the populationwithin a country. This paper simulates the global povertyheadcount under three growth scenarios for the bottom 40percent up to 2030. The analysis deploys a set of"shared prosperity premiums," in which the bottom40 percent in each country grows at a differential rate fromthe projected growth in the mean. With no distributionalchange, the global headcount reaches between 6.7 and 4.7percent in 2030, depending on the average growth scenarioused for the simulations. However, if the incomes of thebottom 40 percent grow 2 percentage points faster than themean, the World Bank's poverty goal is achieved withthe global poverty falling to below 3 percent in 2030 in thescenarios which average growth rates are extrapolated fromthe early 2000s. While such a "shared prosperitypremium" is not unprecedented in recent growth spells,maintaining it over 20 years in every country is optimistic.The paper shows that in the baseline growth scenario, theglobal poverty rate could either reach the 3 percent target,or be close to 10 percent, depending on the "sharedprosperity premium."