R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations

Pourpourides, Panayiotis M. ; Artuc, Erhan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGGREGATE SUPPLY;    ALLOCATION;    AUTOREGRESSION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6017
RP-ID  :  WPS6017

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The research and development (R&D)sector is considered one of the main driving forces ofsustainable growth in the long run. The sector, however,also shows excessive volatility which raises interestingquestions regarding the sources of this volatility as wellas the nature of the relation between the sector andaggregate fluctuations. Using data from the United StatesBureau of Economic Analysis and National Science Foundation,we show that technology innovations are the main source offluctuations in R&D investment while R&D technologyshocks are important in driving aggregate outputfluctuations. After taking nominal innovations intoconsideration, such as shocks in monetary policy andinflation, capital investment-specific shocks explain 70percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&Dtechnology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation in theoutput of the non-R&D sector. Technology innovationsjointly explain most of the variation of output in theR&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output inthe rest of the economy.