The Future of the Nuclear Industry Reconsidered : Risks, Uncertainties, and Continued Potential

Kessides, Ioannis N.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSORPTION;    ACCIDENTS;    AIR;    AIR FLOW;    ALTERNATIVE ENERGY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6112
RP-ID  :  WPS6112

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Skeptics point out, with somejustification, that the nuclear industry's prospectswere dimmed by escalating costs long before Fukushima. Ifhistory is any guide, one direct consequence of the calamityin Japan will be more stringent safety requirements andregulatory delays that will inevitably increase the costs ofnuclear power and further undermine its economic viability.For nuclear power to play a major role in meeting the futureglobal energy needs and mitigating the threat of climatechange, the hazards of another Fukushima and theconstruction delays and costs escalation that have plaguedthe industry will have to be substantially reduced. Onepromising direction for nuclear development might be todownsize reactors from the gigawatt scale to less-complexsmaller units that are more affordable. Small modularreactors (SMRs) are scalable nuclear power plant designsthat promise to reduce investment risks through incrementalcapacity expansion; become more standardized and reducecosts through accelerated learning effects; and addressconcerns about catastrophic events, since they containsubstantially smaller radioactive inventory. Given theirlower capital requirements and small size, which makes themsuitable for small electric grids, SMRs can more effectivelyaddress the energy needs of small developing countries.