Nature, Socioeconomics and Adaptation to Natural Disasters : New Evidence from Floods

Ferreira, Susana ; Hamilton, Kirk ; Vincent, Jeffrey R.

关键词: AGGREGATING GOVERNANCE INDICATORS;    AVALANCHES;    BUILDING CODES;    BUREAUCRACY;    BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5725
RP-ID  :  WPS5725

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors analyze the determinants offatalities in 2,194 large flood events in 108 countriesbetween 1985 and 2008. Given that socioeconomic factors canaffect mortality right in the aftermath of a flood, but alsoindirectly by influencing flood frequency and magnitude,they distinguish between direct and indirect effects ofdevelopment on flood mortality. The authors find that incomeis negatively associated with the frequency of floods and,conditional on their magnitude, the fatalities they cause indeveloping countries. However, for developed countries theyfind that increased income is associated with morefatalities, both directly (conditional on flood occurrenceand magnitude) and indirectly through an increase in thefrequency and magnitude of flood events. Also in contrast tothe literature, they find that the effect of governance onflood frequency and fatalities in developing countries isU-shaped, with improvements in governance reducing thenumbers of floods and deaths when governance is weaker butraising them when governance is stronger.