Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy

Winters, L. Alan ; Yusuf, Shahid

Washington, DC : World Bank

关键词: ABSOLUTE TERMS;    ACCOUNTING;    ACTUAL GROWTH;    ADULT LITERACY;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/978-0-8213-6749-0
RP-ID  :  38339

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This report takes a dispassionate andcritical look at the rise of China and India, and asksquestions about this growth: Where is it occurring? Who isbenefiting most? Is it sustainable? And what are theimplications for the rest of the world? The book considerswhether the giants' growth will be seriouslyconstrained by weaknesses in governance, growing inequality,and environmental stresses, and it concludes that this neednot occur. However, it does suggest that the Chinese andIndian authorities face important challenges in keepingtheir investment climates favorable, their inequalities atlevels that do not undermine growth, and their air and waterquality at acceptable levels.The authors also considerChina's and India's interactions with the globaltrading and financial systems and their impact on the globalcommons, particularly with regard to climate. The book findsthat the giants' growth and trade offer most countriesopportunities to gain economically. However, many countrieswill face strong adjustment pressure in manufacturing,particularly those with competing exports and especially ifthe giants' technical progress is strongly export-enhancing. For a few countries, mainly in Asia, thesepressures could outweigh the economic benefits of largermarkets in, and cheaper imports from, the giants; and thegrowth of those countries over the next fifteen years willbe slightly lower as a result. The giants will contribute tothe increase in world commodity and energy prices but theyare not the principal cause of higher oil prices. Thegiants' emissions of CO2 will grow strongly, especiallyif economic growth is not accompanied by steps to enhanceenergy efficiency. At present, a one-time window ofopportunity exists for achieving substantial efficiencyimprovements if ambitious current and future investmentplans embody appropriate standards. Moreover, doing so willnot be too costly or curtail growth significantly. Fromtheir relatively small positions at present, the giants willemerge as significant players in the world financial systemas they grow and liberalize. Rates of reserve assetaccumulation likely will slow, and emerging pressures willencourage China to reduce its current account surplus.