A Preliminary Analysis of the Impact of a Ukraine-EU Free Trade Agreement on Agriculture

von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan ; Hess, Sebastian ; Brummer, Bernhard

关键词: AD VALOREM;    AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE;    AGRICULTURAL MARKETS;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5264
RP-ID  :  WPS5264

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Agriculture including food products isof particular interest for Ukraine. However, in free tradeagreements involving the European Union, agriculture isalways given special treatment and subject to less andslower liberalization than other sectors. This paper employsthe standard Global Trade Analysis Project model in order toassess how World Trade Organization accession affectsagriculture in Ukraine, and how potential bilateral tariffcuts may interact with potential productivity gains withinUkrainian agriculture. The results indicate that, due totrade liberalization, Ukraine can expect gains from a moreefficient allocation of its resources in line withcomparative advantage, leading to an increase of productionand exports of wheat, other grains, and oilseeds, but alsoof several processed food products that benefit from lessexpensive intermediate inputs. However, Ukraine'sexports are concentrated on a small number of destinations,especially Russia and some other Former Soviet Unioncountries because they fail to meet quality standardselsewhere. When Ukrainian production of these productsincreases due to increased allocative efficiency, exports toRussia increase further and prices there fall, generatingnegative terms of trade effects that largely offset theallocative gains. Ukrainian imports of agricultural productsincrease as well, partly because Ukrainian consumers switchto higher quality imported goods even though domesticproduction increases. Regarding free trade agreementnegotiations with the European Union, these resultshighlight for Ukraine the fact that improved agriculturalproductivity will help to get most out of improved marketaccess. However, the results also highlight for Ukraine thegreat importance of adopting internationally acceptedquality standards in order to diversify its export structure.