Who Remained in Poverty, Who Moved Up, and Who Fell Down? An Investigation of Poverty Dynamics in Senegal in the Late 2000s

Dang, Hai-Anh H. ; Lanjouw, Peter F. ; Swinkels, Rob

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE TERMS;    ANNUAL GROWTH;    ANNUAL GROWTH RATE;    CASH TRANSFERS;    CHANGES IN POVERTY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7141
RP-ID  :  WPS7141

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Poverty estimates based on cross-sectiondata provide static snapshots of poverty rates.Although atime series of cross-section data can offer some insightsinto poverty trends, it does not allow for an assessment ofdynamics at the household level. Such a dynamic perspectiveon poverty generally calls for panel data and this kind ofanalysis can usefully inform poverty reduction policy,notably the design of social protection interventions.Absent actual panel data for Senegal, this paper applies newstatistical methods to construct synthetic panel data fromtwo rounds of cross-section household surveys in 2005 and2011. These data are used to study poverty transitions. Theresults suggest that, in marked contrast to the pictureobtained from cross-section data, there exists a great dealof mobility in and out of poverty during this period. Morethan half the population experiences changes in its povertystatus and more than two-thirds of the extreme (food) poormove up one or two welfare categories. Factors such as ruralresidence, disability, exposure to some kind of naturaldisaster, and informality in the labor market are associatedwith a heightened risk of falling into poverty. Belonging tocertain ethnicities and factors such as migration, workingin the non-agriculture sector, and having access to socialcapital are associated with a lower risk of falling into poverty.