Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach

Cojocaru, Alexandru ; Olivieri, Sergio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATE INEQUALITY;    AGRICULTURAL INCOMES;    AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;    AGRICULTURE;    ANNUAL % CHANGE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6889
RP-ID  :  WPS6889

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The continued poverty impact of thefinancial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tacklesthis difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach thataccounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis inSerbia, the labor market. The results suggest a furtherincrease in poverty in 2011 on account of a continueddeterioration of the labor market indicators and despite arecovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate theforecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts forprevious years (2009 and 2010), which are compared withrealized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation modelperforms well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictionsimproves when the response of the social protection systemis accounted for.