Simulating Poverty in Europe : The Potential Contributions of Employment and Education to Reducing Poverty and Social Exclusion by 2020

Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan ; Simler, Kenneth ; Azam, Mehtabul ; Dasgupta, Basab ; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha ; Topinska, Irena

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE POVERTY;    BENEFICIARIES;    CAPITAL INVESTMENTS;    CHRONIC ILLNESS;    CITIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6660
RP-ID  :  WPS6660

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper sheds light on the impact ofimproving employment and education conditions on poverty andsocial exclusion indicators. More specifically, it answersthe following question: Will achieving the Europe 2020national targets on employment and education lead countriesto achieve the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusiontarget with no other policy interventions? The paperpresents a simple partial equilibrium model that is flexibleenough to be implemented in a number of different settingsand uses widely available household survey data. Thesimulation model analyzes poverty and social exclusionoutcomes in response to changes in education completionrates and employment rates. The model is applied to ten ofthe European Union's new Member States -- Bulgaria, theCzech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland,Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia -- and the model'sperformance is evaluated through a validation exercise. TheEurope 2020 national employment targets are ambitious inmany of the new Member States, given historical employmentpatterns in the countries. Especially in light of the slowand uncertain recovery, labor markets remain weak andemployment rates in 2020 could fall short of rates targetedby national policy makers. In this eventuality, the povertyand social exclusion goals may not be reached in many of thenew Member States without additional policy measures.