Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare : Evidence from Brazil in 2008

Ferreira, Francisco H.G. ; Fruttero, Anna ; Leite, Phillippe ; Lucchetti, Leonardo

关键词: AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;    AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURAL LABOUR;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5652
RP-ID  :  WPS5652

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Food price inflation in Brazil in thetwelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overallinflation was seven percent. Using spatially disaggregatedmonthly data on consumer prices and two different householdsurveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these foodprice increases, and their distribution across households.Because Brazil is a large food producer, with apredominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, ourestimates include general equilibrium effects on market andtransfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates ofchanges in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (orconsumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedlyregressive everywhere, the market income effect was positiveand progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because ofthis effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protectionafforded by increases in two large social assistancebenefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazilwas U-shaped, with middle-income groups suffering largerproportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, sinceBrazil is 80 percent urban, higher food prices still led toa greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level.