Biofuels and Climate Change Mitigation : A CGE Analysis Incorporating Land-Use Change

Timilsina, Govinda R. ; Mevel, Simon

关键词: ABOVE GROUND BIOMASS;    ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AMAZONIAN RAINFOREST;    ANNUAL EMISSION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5672
RP-ID  :  WPS5672

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The question of whether biofuels helpmitigate climate change has attracted much debate in theliterature. Using a global computable general equilibriummodel that explicitly represents land-use change impacts dueto the expansion of biofuels, this study attempts to shedsome light on this question. The study shows that if biofuelmandates and targets currently announced by more than 40countries around the world are implemented by 2020 usingcrop feedstocks, and if both forests and pasture lands areused to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion,this would cause a net increase of greenhouse gas emissionsreleased to the atmosphere until 2043, since the cumulativegreenhouse gas emissions released through land-use changewould exceed the reduction of emissions due to replacementof gasoline and diesel until then. However, if the use offorest lands is avoided by channeling only pasture lands tomeet the demand for new lands, a net increase of cumulativegreenhouse gas emissions would occur but would cease by2021, only a year after the assumed full implementation ofthe mandates and targets. The study also shows, contrary tocommon perceptions, that the rate of deforestation does notincrease with the rate of biofuel expansion; instead, themarginal rate of deforestation and corresponding land-useemissions decrease even if the production of biofuels increases.