Assessing Ex Ante the Poverty and Distributional Impact of the Global Crisis in a Developing Country : A Micro-simulation Approachwith Application to Bangladesh

Habib, Bilal ; Narayan, Ambar ; Olivieri, Sergio ; Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina

关键词: ABSOLUTE TERMS;    ADVERSE IMPACT;    AGGREGATE INCOME;    AGGREGATE POVERTY;    AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5238
RP-ID  :  WPS5238

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Measuring the poverty and distributionalimpact of the global crisis for developing countries is noteasy, given the multiple channels of impact and the limitedavailability of real-time data. Commonly-used approaches areof limited use in addressing questions like who are beingaffected by the crisis and by how much, and who arevulnerable to falling into poverty if the crisis deepens?This paper develops a simple micro-simulation method,modifying models from existing economic literature, tomeasure the poverty and distributional impact ofmacroeconomic shocks by linking macro projections withpre-crisis household data. The approach is then applied toBangladesh to assess the potential impact of the slowdown onpoverty and income distribution across different groups andregions. A validation exercise using past data fromBangladesh finds that the model generates projections thatcompare well with actual estimates from household data. Theresults can inform the design of crisis monitoring tools andpolicies in Bangladesh, and also illustrate the kind ofanalysis that is possible in other developing countries withsimilar data availability.