Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture : Ricardian Approach

Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AFFORESTATION;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL MARKETING;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4342
RP-ID  :  WPS4342

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study uses the Ricardian approachto analyze the impact of climate change on Ethiopianagriculture and to describe farmer adaptations to varyingenvironmental factors. The study analyzes data from 11 ofthe country's 18 agro-ecological zones, representingmore than 74 percent of the country, and survey of 1,000farmers from 50 districts. Regressing of net revenue onclimate, household, and soil variables show that thesevariables have a significant impact on the farmers' netrevenue per hectare.The study carries out a marginal impactanalysis of increasing temperature and changingprecipitation across the four seasons. In addition, itexamines the impact of uniform climate scenarios onfarmers' net revenue per hectare. Additionally, itanalyzes the net revenue impact of predicted climatescenarios from three models for the years 2050 and 2100. Ingeneral, the results indicate that increasing temperatureand decreasing precipitation are both damaging to Ethiopianagriculture. Although the analysis did not incorporate thecarbon fertilization effect, the role of technology, or thechange in prices for the future, significant information forpolicy-making can be extracted.