Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt : A Ricardian Approach

Eid, Helmy M. ; El-Marsafawy, Samia M. ; Ouda, Samiha A.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO INFORMATION;    AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;    AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4293
RP-ID  :  WPS4293

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study employed the Ricardianapproach to measure the economic impacts of climate changeon farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue wereregressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic andhydrological variables to determine which factors influencethe variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian modelwas applied, in addition to three other models, eachrepresenting an adaptation option that could be used toreduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A furtheradaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on thefarm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change.Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios(using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models)were considered. The results from the two climate changescenarios showed that high temperatures will constrainagricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technologyare therefore the recommended adaptation options. However,warming may also affect water resources and that would poseanother problem for agricultural production. A policy shouldbe developed to cope with the adverse effects of climatechange on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: cropmanagement, water management, and land management. Thefavored option for adapting to increased temperatures isirrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates toavoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortagesin rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water useefficiency and early maturing varieties.