The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture : A Ricardian Approach

Kabubo-Mariara, Jane ; Karanja, Fredrick K

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL DIVERSITY;    AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION;    AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4334
RP-ID  :  WPS4334

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper measures the economic impactof climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based oncross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and householdlevel data for a sample of 816 households, and uses aseasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts ofclimate variables suggest that global warming is harmful foragricultural productivity and that changes in temperatureare much more important than changes in precipitation. Thisresult is confirmed by the predicted impact of variousclimate change scenarios on agriculture. The results furtherconfirm that the temperature component of global warming ismuch more important than precipitation. The authors analyzefarmers' perceptions of climate variations and theiradaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptationmechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya areaware of short-term climate change, that most of them havenoticed an increase in temperatures, and that some havetaken adaptive measures.