Oil and Civil Conflict : Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?

Singh, Raju Jan ; Bodea, Cristina ; Higashijima, Masaaki

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ADEQUATE EDUCATION;    ADULT LITERACY;    ARMED CONFLICT;    ARMED FORCE;    ARMED FORCES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7100
RP-ID  :  WPS7100

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper explores the conditions underwhich public spending could minimize violent conflictrelated to oil wealth. Previous work suggests that oil canlead to violent conflict because it increases the value ofthe state as a prize or because it undermines thestate's bureaucratic penetration. Yet, little has beensaid on how oil wealth could be used to prevent the onset ofviolent conflict through public spending by buying offcitizens and elites, increasing state legitimacy byproviding basic services, or strengthening the military andsecurity apparatus. The empirical analysis (148 countriesover 1960-2009) shows that higher levels of militaryspending are associated with lower risk of small- andlarge-scale conflict onset in countries rich in oil and gas.By contrast, in economies with little natural resources,increases in military spending are associated with a higherrisk of conflict. Welfare expenditure is associated withlower risk of small-scale conflict, irrespective of thelevel of oil revenue. However, general government spendingdoes not appear to have any robust mitigating effects.