Oil Spills on Other Commodities

Baffes, John

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY;    AUCTIONS;    AVERAGE PRICE;    BARTER;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4333
RP-ID  :  WPS4333

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper examines the effect of crudeoil prices on the prices of 35 internationally tradedprimary commodities for the 1960-2005 period. It finds thatthe pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overallnon-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregatedlevel, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through(0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11).The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strongresponse to the crude oil price. In terms of individualcommodities, the estimates of the food group exhibitedremarkable similarity while those of raw materials andmetals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that ifcrude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analystsexpect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely tolast much longer than earlier booms, at least for foodcommodities. The other commodities, however, are likely tofollow diverging paths. On the methodological side, theresults show that price indices, while providing usefulsummary statistics, need to be supplemented by individualcommodity analysis.