The Potential Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on World Trade

McKibbin, Warwick J. ; Stoeckel, Andrew

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ADVANCED ECONOMIES;    ADVERSE EFFECT;    AGGREGATE SUPPLY;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5134
RP-ID  :  WPS5134

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper models the global financialcrisis as a combination of shocks to global housing marketsand sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households andinternational investors in a global economic model. Themodel has six sectors of production and trade in 15 majoreconomies and regions. The paper shows that the shocksobserved in financial markets can be used to generate thesevere economic contraction in global trade and productionexperienced in 2009. In particular the distinction betweenthe production and trade of durable and non durable goodsplays a key role in explaining the much larger contractionin trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paperexplores the implications of the large increase in fiscaldeficits and the implications of a global trade war inresponse to the financial crisis.