Jobless Growth? Okun's Law in East Asia

Hanusch, Marek

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    BUSINESS CYCLE;    BUSINESS CYCLES;    CREATIVE DESTRUCTION;    DEMOCRACY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6156
RP-ID  :  WPS6156

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Was economic growth in East Asiajobless? This paper addresses this question using data fromeight East Asian countries during the period between 1997and 2011 to estimate the Okun's Law Coefficient, whichcaptures the relationship between growth and employment. Theanalysis suggests that growth was not jobless. However,there is considerable variation across countries. Generally,the effect of growth on employment tends to magnify undermore flexible hiring and firing rules. Yet even where labormarkets are more tightly regulated, economic growth affectsemployment, not necessarily in the aggregate but in itscomposition. There is evidence that agricultural employmentmoves counter-cyclically, as opposed to non-agriculturalemployment. The effect is particularly pronounced in periodsof economic crisis, suggesting that agriculture may serve asa shock-absorber for workers laid off in the industrialsector. Isolating non-agricultural employment reveals astronger relationship between growth and job creation.