Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings

Geli, Patricia ; Kraay, Aart ; Nobakht, Hoveida

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: AID;    CORRECTIVE ACTIONS;    DEVELOPMENT ISSUES;    DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES;    DEVELOPMENT POLICY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7001
RP-ID  :  WPS7001

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

A number of recent studies haveempirically documented links between characteristics ofWorld Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluatedby the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. Thispaper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictiveperformance of empirical models relating project outcomes toproject characteristics observed early in the life of aproject. Such models perform better than self-assessments ofproject performance provided by World Bank staff during theimplementation of the project. These findings are applied tothe problem of predicting eventual Independent EvaluationGroup ratings for currently active projects in the WorldBank's portfolio.