Equilibrium Credit : The Reference Point for Macroprudential Supervisors

Buncic, Daniel ; Melecky, Martin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE;    ACCESS TO CREDIT;    ACCESS TO FINANCE;    ACCESS TO FINANCIAL SERVICES;    ADVANCED ECONOMIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6358
RP-ID  :  WPS6358

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Equilibrium credit is an importantconcept because it helps identify excessive creditprovision. This paper proposes a two-stage approach todetermine equilibrium credit. It uses two stages to studychanges in the demand for credit due to varying levels ofeconomic, financial and institutional development of acountry. Using a panel of high and middle-income countriesover the period 1980-2010, this paper provides empiricalevidence that the credit-to-GDP ratio is inappropriate tomeasure equilibrium credit. The reason for this is that suchan approach ignores heterogeneity in the parameters thatdetermine equilibrium credit across countries due todifferent stages of economic development. The main driversof this heterogeneity are financial depth, access tofinancial services, use of capital markets, efficiency andfunding of domestic banks, central bank independence, thedegree of supervisory integration, and experience of afinancial crisis. Countries in Europe and Central Asia showa slower adjustment of credit to its long-run equilibriumcompared with other regions of the world.