The Savings Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe

Denizer, Cevdet ; Wolf, Holger C.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: savings;    market economy;    transitional economies;    economic liberalization;    gross domestic product;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2419
RP-ID  :  WPS2419

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors assess the presence and extent of involuntary savings by comparing the predicted savings rates of market economies with those of the pre-transition economies. On balance, predicted savings rates fell short of actual savings rates, especially for the former Soviet Union and the Baltics -- providing some support for the notion of excessive pre-transition savings. Comparing the savings behavior of market economies and transition economies, they found substantial similarities, except for a negative link between savings and GDP growth. As the fastest-growing transition economies are at the bottom of the adjustment J-curve, the finding is consistent with consumption smoothing. Finally, they explored whether differences in the extent of economic liberalization affected savings rates in the cross-section of transition economies. They found that liberalization is associated with lower savings, with a one-year lag. To the extent that liberalization is perceived as an indicator of likely future growth, this behavior is consistent with smoothing in the face of a J-curve change in output.