The Cost of Adjustment to Green Growth Policies : Lessons from Trade Adjustment Costs

Porto, Guido

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE;    ADJUSTMENT COST;    ADJUSTMENT COSTS;    ADJUSTMENT POLICIES;    ADJUSTMENT PROCESS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6237
RP-ID  :  WPS6237

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Green growth policies confront firms andworkers with adjustments that may create welfare costs fordifferent segments of the population and cause reductions innear-term actual versus potential gross domestic product.There is little evidence on the cost of adjustment toclimate change measures, and only limited evidence for moregeneral environmental policies, especially in developingcountries. Therefore, this paper canvasses the research onadjustment costs to trade policies to draw analogies andhighlight differences compared with the potential impacts ofgreen growth policies. Trade policies affect prices and workdirectly on technology choice. In the presence of adjustmentcosts, firms may experience impacts on wages, employment,and incentives to adopt alternative technologies. Both typesof trade policy impacts may be amplified by technologyavailability and credit constraints. Many green growthpolicies are likely to work via the same mechanisms, thatis, taxes on emissions or changes in technologyrequirements. However, trade liberalization is typicallyseen as offering higher total incomes, albeit with winnersand losers. Green growth policies are thought of aswelfare-enhancing at the collective level but may not beincome-enhancing at the individual level. This implies muchmore difficulty in measuring the potential gains associatedwith green growth policies.