Dutch Disease and Spending Strategies in a Resource-Rich Low-income Country : The Case of Niger

Go, Delfin S. ; Robinson, Sherman ; Thierfelder, Karen ; Utz, Robert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: BOOM-BUST CYCLE;    DUTCH DISEASE;    HUMAN CAPITAL;    MINERAL REVENUE;    POVERTY REDUCTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6691
RP-ID  :  WPS6691

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper examines spending planssuggested by the recent literature regarding Dutch diseaseand examines their implications to Niger relative to itsexpanding mineral sector. The key to the benefits ofsignificant mineral revenue lies with the productivity andsupply responses of spending. If significant output gain isensured, then there is little difference across the spendingplans in their effects on real consumption. The overshootingof relative prices of the non-tradable sector or theshrinking share of traded sectors in gross domestic productis also ameliorated with greater supply flexibility. Growthpaths of alternative spending strategies differ markedly intiming and pattern when spending does not raiseproductivity. As a caution against expectations thatexaggerate the benefits of mineral revenue under allcircumstances, the more aggressive spending plan may resultin a boom-bust cycle if fiscal adjustments and debtrepayments are necessary for any significant borrowingagainst future revenue and productivity gains are notrealized. Using extractive industries revenue for transfersto households would have a greater effect on povertyreduction in the short and medium term but the long-rungains from investment in human and physical capital arelikely to offset the initial lack of pro-poor bias.Different strategies differ significantly with regard torisks and required technical implementation capacity andpolitical capacity to sustain a chosen course of action.