Saving and Growth in Egypt

Hevia, Constantino ; Loayza, Norman

关键词: ANNUAL DEPRECIATION RATE;    ANNUAL GROWTH;    ANNUAL GROWTH RATE;    AVERAGE GROWTH;    AVERAGE GROWTH RATE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5529
RP-ID  :  WPS5529

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study illustrates the mechanismslinking national saving and economic growth, with thepurpose of understanding the possibilities and limits of asaving-based growth agenda in the context of the Egyptianeconomy. This is done through a simple theoretical model,calibrated to fit the Egyptian economy, and simulated toexplore different potential scenarios. The main conclusionis that if the Egyptian economy does not experience progressin productivity -- stemming from technological innovation,improved public management, and private-sector reforms --then a high rate of economic growth is not feasible atcurrent rates of national saving and would require a savingeffort that is highly unrealistic. For instance, financing aconstant 4 percent growth rate of gross domestic product percapita with no improvement in total factor productivitywould require a national saving rate of around 50 percent inthe first decade and 80 percent in 25 years. However, ifproductivity rises, sustaining and improving high rates ofeconomic growth becomes viable. Following the previousexample, a 2 percent growth rate of total factorproductivity would allow a 4 percent growth rate of grossdomestic product per capita with national saving rate in therealistic range of 20-25 percent of gross domestic product.