The Effects of Country Risk and Conflict on Infrastructure PPPs

Araya, Gonzalo ; Schwartz, Jordan ; Andres, Luis

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO BANK;    ACCESS TO CAPITAL;    ACCESS TO CAPITAL MARKETS;    AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS;    AIRPORTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6569
RP-ID  :  WPS6569

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Through an empirical analysis of therelationship between private participation in infrastructureand country risk, the paper shows that country risk ratingsare a reliable predictor of infrastructure investment levelsin developing countries. The results suggest that adifference of one standard deviation in a country'ssovereign risk score is associated with a 27 percentincrease in the probability of having a privateparticipation in infrastructure commitment, and a 41 percenthigher level of investment in dollar terms. The predictiveability of country risk ratings exists for all sectors ofinfrastructure and for both greenfield and concessions. Onaverage, energy investments exhibit a higher sensitivity tocountry risk than transport, telecommunications, and waterinvestments. Concessions are more sensitive than greenfieldinvestments to country risk, although country risk is a goodpredictor of investment levels for both contractual forms.Although foreign direct investment is found to be sensitiveto country risk, the causal relationship is not nearly assensitive as it is with private participation ininfrastructure. Finally, an analysis of privateparticipation in infrastructure patterns for those countriesemerging from conflict reveals that conflict-affectedcountries typically require six to seven years to attractsignificant levels or forms of private investments ininfrastructure from the day that the conflict is officiallyresolved. Private investments in sectors where assets aremore difficult to secure--such as water, power distribution,or roads--are slower to appear or simply never materialize.