Reform and Backlash to Reform : Economic Effects of Ageing and Retirement Policy

Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard ; Jorgensen, Ole Hagen

关键词: AGE COMPOSITION;    AGGREGATE INCOME;    ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES;    BABIES;    BABY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5470
RP-ID  :  WPS5470

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Using a stochastic general equilibriummodel with overlapping generations, this paper studies (i)the effects on both extensive and intensive labor supplyresponses to changes in fertility rates, and (ii) thepotential of a retirement reform to mitigate the effects offertility changes on labor supply. In order to neutralizethe effects on effective labor supply of a fertilitydecline, a retirement reform, designed to increase laborsupply at the extensive margin, is found to simultaneouslyreduce labor supply at the intensive margin. This backlashto retirement reform requires the statutory retirement ageto increase more than proportionally to fertility changes inorder to compensate for endogenous responses of theintensity of labor supply. The robustness of this result ischecked against alternative model specifications andcalibrations relevant to an economic region such as Europe.