Biofuels : Markets, Targets and Impacts

Timilsina, Govinda R. ; Shrestha, Ashish

关键词: ACID;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES;    AIR;    AIR POLLUTANTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5364
RP-ID  :  WPS5364

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper reviews recent developmentsin biofuel markets and their economic, social andenvironmental impacts. Several countries have introducedmandates and targets for biofuel expansion. Production,international trade and investment have increased sharply inthe past few years. However, several existing studies haveblamed biofuels as one of the key factors behind the2007-2008 global food crisis, although the magnitudes ofimpacts in these studies vary widely depending on theunderlying assumptions and structure of the models. Existingstudies also have huge disparities in the magnitude oflong-term impacts of biofuels on food prices and supply;studies that model only the agricultural sector show higherimpacts, whereas studies that model the entire economy showrelatively lower impacts. In terms of climate changemitigation impacts, there exists a consensus that currentbiofuels lead to greenhouse gas mitigation only whengreenhouse gas emissions related to land-use change are notcounted. If conversion of carbon rich forest land to cropland is not avoided, the resulting greenhouse gas releasewould mean that biofuels would not reduce cumulativegreenhouse gas emissions until several years had passed.Overall, results from most of the existing literature do notfavor diversion of food for large-scale production ofbiofuels, although regulated production of biofuels incountries with surplus land and a strong biofuel industryare not ruled out. Developments in second generationbiofuels offer some hope, yet they still compete with foodsupply through land use and are currently constrained by anumber of technical and economic barriers.