The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture : A Ricardian Approach

Maddison, David ; Manley, Marita ; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4306
RP-ID  :  WPS4306

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper uses the Ricardian approachto examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa haveadapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimatesthe effects of predicted changes in climate while accountingfor whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This studydiffers from earlier ones by using farmers' ownperceptions of the value of their land. Previous research,by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices ornet revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically largetracts of terrain. The study also makes use of highresolution data describing soil quality and runoff.Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modelingthe effect of climate on agriculture in a study thatincludes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres,as well as the tropics. The study confirms that Africanagriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change.Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. Bycontrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa arehardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses ofonly 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study alsoconfirms the importance of water supplies as measured byrunoff, which, being affected by both temperature andprecipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.