Accounting for Selectivity and Duration-Dependent Heterogeneity When Estimating the Impact of Emigration on Incomes and Poverty in Sending Areas

Gibson, John ; McKenzie, David ; Stillman, Steven

关键词: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES;    BASIC NEEDS;    BRAIN DRAIN;    BULLETIN;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5268
RP-ID  :  WPS5268

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The impacts of international emigrationand remittances on incomes and poverty in sending areas areincreasingly studied with household survey data. Butcomparing households with and without emigrants iscomplicated by a triple-selectivity problem: first,households self-select into emigration; second, in someemigrant households everyone moves while others leavemembers behind; and third, some emigrants choose to returnto the origin country. Allowing for duration-dependentheterogeneity introduces a fourth form of selectivity -- onemust now worry not just about whether households migrate,but also when they do so. This paper clearly sets out theseselectivity issues and their implications for existingmigration studies, and then addresses them by using surveydata designed specifically to take advantage of a randomizedlottery that determines which applicants to theover-subscribed Samoan Quota may immigrate to New Zealand.The analysis compares incomes and poverty rates among leftbehind members in households in Samoa that sent Samoan Quotaemigrants with those for members of similar households thatwere unsuccessful in the lottery. Policy rules control whocan accompany the principal migrant, providing an instrumentto address the second selectivity problem, while differencesamong migrants in which year their ballot was selected allowfor estimation of duration effects. The authors find thatmigration reduced poverty among former household members,but they also find suggestive evidence that this effect maybe short-lived as both remittances and agricultural incomeare negatively related to the duration that the migrant hasbeen abroad.