Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? | |
Raddatz, Claudio | |
World Bank, Washington, DC | |
关键词: ABSOLUTE TERMS; ABSOLUTE VALUE; ADVERSE SHOCKS; AGGREGATE DEMAND; AUTOREGRESSION; | |
DOI : 10.1596/1813-9450-3680 RP-ID : WPS3680 |
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学科分类:社会科学、人文和艺术(综合) | |
来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository | |
【 摘 要 】
External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.
【 预 览 】
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