Closing Rural-Urban MDG Gaps in Low-Income Countries : A General Equilibrium Perspective

Lofgren, Hans

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES;    ACCOUNTING;    AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL SERVICES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6390
RP-ID  :  WPS6390

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper addresses policies aimed atclosing the rural-urban gap for one of the MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs), the under-five mortality rate(U5MR). The paper relies on the Maquette for MDG Simulations(MAMS), a computable general equilibrium model, applied tothe database of an archetypical low-income country. Thescenarios, which focus on the period 2013-2030, include a"business-as-usual" base scenario and policyscenarios that analyze efforts to raise the rural populationup to the urban level in terms of health services or theunder-five mortality rate. The policy scenarios areimplemented with alternative sources of fiscal space. Theresults indicate that, if current trends continue,considerable progress for MDGs should be expected by 2030.If the government raises rural health services, then thedecline in the rural U5MR would accelerate. If mostadditional resources come from foreign grants or governmentefficiency gains, then the repercussions for otherdevelopment indicators, including poverty reduction, wouldbe positive. However, if most additional resources are fromdomestic taxes or borrowing, then progress for the ruralU5MR would come at the expense of less progress for otherindicators. Sensitivity analysis shows that thesequalitative findings are robust to different values for twoparameters related to initial rural-urban cost and servicegaps. However, quantitatively, the results depend on thevalues of these two parameters, implying that individualcountry characteristics strongly influence the fiscal-spacerequirements for and consequences of equalizing rural-urbanMDG services and outcomes.