Groundnut Policies, Global TradeDynamics, and the Impact of Trade Liberalization

Diop, Ndiame ; Beghin, John ; Sewadeh, Mirvat

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: AGRICULTURAL INPUTS;    AGRICULTURE;    ANIMAL FEED;    BUTTER;    CANCER;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3226
RP-ID  :  WPS3226

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Groundnut products are of centraleconomic importance to millions of smallholders in Africa,India, and Southern China. The products generate 60 percentof rural cash income and account for about 70 percent of therural labor force in Senegal and The Gambia. Groundnut tradeis heavily distorted, and this has affected the competitiveposition of various players in world markets. Using apartial-equilibrium, multi-market, international model, theauthors analyze the trade and welfare effects of severalgroundnut trade liberalization scenarios compared with therecent historical baseline. They evaluate net welfare as thesum of consumers' equivalent variation, quasi-profitsin farming, quasi-profits in crushing, and taxpayers'revenues and outlays implied by distortions. The authorsfind that trade liberalization in groundnut markets has astrong South-South dimension with policies in India, and toa lesser extent China, heavily depressing the world pricesof groundnut products at the expense of smaller developingcountries mainly located in Africa. Under free trade,African exporters would gain because they are net sellers ofgroundnut products. In India, consumers would be better offwith lower consumer prices resulting from the removal ofprohibitive tariffs and large imports of groundnut products.The cost of adjustment would fall on Indian farmers andcrushers. In China, crush margins would improve because ofthe large terms of trade effects in the groundnut oil marketrelative to the seed market. China's groundnut productexports would expand dramatically. Net buyers of groundnutproducts in OECD countries would be worse off. The authorsdraw implications for the Doha negotiations.